Policy Brief by Ameer Makhoul – Progress Center for Policies
Summary (Translated from Arabic)
Despite ongoing claims of “progress in negotiations,” “positive assessments,” and “good news coming soon,” over 2,000 Palestinian civilians in Gaza have died since this narrative intensified. On the ground, the Israeli army has expanded its operations in central Gaza and Deir al-Balah under the pretext of “ripening conditions” for a prisoner-exchange deal. At the same time, far-right Israeli ministers, like Orit Strock, are calling for expanding military operations even into areas believed to hold Israeli hostages.
According to UN data, a third of Gaza’s population is going days without food. Starvation, resulting from deliberate policy, has become deadly and genocidal. Gaza is now virtually uninhabitable.
In the West Bank
Israeli security leaders warn of Jewish terrorist groups, backed by parts of the government, that work alongside state apparatuses toward ethnic cleansing, echoing the same genocidal mindset as in Gaza.
Key Observations:
Netanyahu’s Intentions: Questions abound regarding why Israeli PM Netanyahu won’t finalize a deal or ceasefire, even as he talks of a “partial deal” followed by a continued war after a 60-day pause. While returning from Washington, he again spoke about ending the war—without offering concrete mechanisms—suggesting for the first time that war might end.
Timing Strategy: Analysts speculate Netanyahu may agree to a deal around July 27, when the Knesset begins its summer recess until late October. Elections are expected in Spring 2026, though some suspect they could be postponed due to the ongoing security situation.
Political Calculations: Netanyahu currently faces no real threat to his rule. The opposition cannot topple him, nor is there an alternative coalition. Any potential fall of his government would likely originate from within his own ranks—possibly by his own design to time elections favorably.
Ultra-Orthodox Rift: A growing rift with ultra-Orthodox party United Torah Judaism might threaten coalition stability. However, this alone isn’t enough to topple the government unless Shas joins the rebellion. Internal polling shows Shas supporters lean more toward Netanyahu’s Likud—many of them serve in the army and are ideologically right-wing, unlike their leadership.
Likud’s Gain: The realignment indicates that Netanyahu could absorb Shas’s base, weakening it. Leaving the coalition would marginalize Shas more than threaten Netanyahu.
False Political Pressure: Netanyahu continues to create an illusion, especially for the U.S., that his government is under internal pressure that could collapse if a deal is made. In reality, no coalition partner truly wants to bring him down. This maneuver aims to justify his slow pace—giving the green light to continue the war and starvation campaign in Gaza while attention shifts elsewhere.
U.S. Administration’s Role: Despite public statements urging a ceasefire, the Biden administration has not forced Netanyahu’s hand. Instead, it tolerates slow, drip-fed negotiations while supplying Israel with massive military support, allowing continued destruction in Gaza.
Starvation as Strategy: UN and media reports suggest starvation is now Israel’s main strategic tool—collective punishment meant to pressure Gazans into forced displacement. The underlying goal appears to be total depopulation of Gaza and destruction of its livability.
Future of Gaza: After summer recess, the Knesset is expected to discuss a plan by far-right MPs (Tzvi Sukkot and Limor Son Har-Melech) to transform Gaza’s ruins into a global free-trade zone, part of the Negev, and a high-tech settlement hub. Despite doubts about the plan’s feasibility, its inclusion on the agenda signals a rapidly advancing ethnic cleansing policy.
Fractures in Israeli Society
A growing divide is emerging inside Israel regarding the starvation tactics and their international impact. Global backlash is mounting—26 nations recently issued a joint statement demanding immediate humanitarian aid and an end to the war. Fears of international legal action and sanctions are spreading.
On July 22, the head of Israel’s medical association called for immediate entry of lifesaving aid to Gaza. Media coverage of alleged war crimes and lawsuits against Israeli soldiers abroad is increasing.
Meanwhile, extremist ministers continue to push for intensified use of starvation—even at the cost of Israeli hostages’ lives.
Conclusion:
Negotiation “progress” is largely performative, masking a political trap agreed upon between Israel and the U.S., despite Washington’s public statements.
The delay in reaching a deal is not due to disagreements or misunderstandings, but rather a deliberate political decision to keep negotiations alive while continuing genocidal tactics.
The Arab world holds leverage, particularly if it asserts Gaza’s Palestinian identity and takes action to demand humanitarian aid and an end to the war.
Unless the Trump administration (and potentially a future administration) decides to forcefully halt the war, the current local, regional, and international factors are insufficient to stop it.
