Analysis by Hamza Ali | Progress Center for Policies
Introduction:
The ongoing war in Gaza continues to reverberate far beyond the Middle East, increasingly reshaping the political landscape of the United Kingdom in particular. What began as a foreign policy flashpoint has now evolved into a defining electoral issue — one that is fracturing long-standing party loyalties, shaking Labour strongholds, and breathing new life into smaller parties and independent campaigns.
In Detail:
On Friday, April 11th, this trend was laid bare when the Green Party secured a sweeping victory in a by-election in Haringey, North London — a traditional Labour stronghold located within the parliamentary constituency of Foreign Secretary David Lammy. Green candidate Ruairidh Paton won 55% of the vote, while Labour trailed far behind with just 30% — a striking collapse for a party that once commanded near-automatic loyalty in the area.
Just days earlier, Labour suffered a similar blow in East London, where a pro-Palestinian independent candidate defeated the party in another local council by-election. The independent campaign sent a clear and direct message: Labour’s perceived complicity in arming and supporting Israel amid its ongoing military campaign in Gaza has alienated wide swathes of its voter base. The independent candidate’s campaign manager did not mince words after the result, declaring:
“A Labour Party that thinks nothing of arming and supporting Israel as it commits a genocide in Gaza is not a party of peace and internationalism.”
These consecutive local defeats point to a growing political reality that is becoming harder to ignore. Labour’s stance on Israel is costing it votes, particularly in urban constituencies with politically engaged and conscious electorates. With local council elections looming on May 1st, the party faces a mounting challenge — one it seems slow to fully grasp as its reputation continues to erode among disillusioned supporters.
The Green Party, meanwhile, has moved swiftly to seize the moment. Party leaders have openly declared their ambition to achieve a “record” number of local council seats in the upcoming elections, potentially marking their eighth consecutive cycle of growth. The Greens have positioned themselves as a natural refuge for disaffected voters — not only those outraged by Labour’s stance on Israel, but also those frustrated by the broader moral complacency and decay of mainstream British politics. The party’s credibility on Palestine is underpinned by its clear and early stance.
At their party conference in September 2024, the Greens became the first political party in England and Wales to officially recognize the conduct of the Israeli government as both “apartheid” and “genocide” — a move that sharply distinguished them from Labour and the Conservatives, and which resonated powerfully with voters seeking moral clarity. And this shift is not confined to isolated by-election upsets; national polling suggests the mood is spreading across the electorate. Consistent polling shows the Green Party enjoying a sustained surge in public interest. According to the latest YouGov data, one in five Britons (21%) now say they would consider voting for the Greens in a future general election — a significant foothold for a party once dismissed as a fringe player.
One of the party’s co-leaders recently described the UK as standing at a “crossroads,” where political instability, public frustration, and a hunger for moral clarity are converging to reshape the political landscape. Palestine may be the clearest flashpoint, but the deeper sentiment is one of broad disillusionment — a growing willingness to abandon traditional party loyalties in search of principled alternatives.
Even in areas where Labour has so far managed to retain control, the shifting mood is undeniable. In March, The Telegraph reported that at least nine Labour-controlled local councils voted to divest their pension funds from British defence companies linked to arms sales to Israel — in open defiance of pressure from the party leadership, which has actively encouraged local authorities to invest in the UK defence sector.
These moves reflect not only growing public pressure but also Labour’s increasing sensitivity to the pro-Palestinian sentiment simmering within its traditional voter base.
Conclusion:
The issue of Palestine has broken free from the confines of elite foreign policy debate and is now actively reshaping the UK’s political map. The recent by-election defeats and the Green Party’s rising poll numbers suggest voters are not only paying attention to foreign affairs but are increasingly willing to express their discontent at the ballot box.
The Greens’ clear and unambiguous position — especially their early recognition of Israel’s actions as both apartheid and genocide — has established them as the moral alternative to the political mainstream.
For Labour, the challenge is stark: its failure to reconcile its stance on Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza with the ethical expectations of its base threatens to deepen its crisis and leave more space for insurgent parties to redraw the future of British politics.
