The New Libya: Internal and External Givens to Yield a Cooperative Political Settlement

By Center for Arab Progress English Last updated Dec 12, 2018

By Adnan Mousi

Translated from Arabic by the Center for Arab Progress

Preface

After more than seven years of Libya stumbling into complete chaos, and the fall of the current governmental structure in favor of the terrorist militias turning the international scene into a political scuffle, the internal and external givens are swayed towards the possibility of a political compromise. Italy has successfully and effectively marketed for a conference in Rome regarding Libya, and supporting it is UN, African, and Arab presence, and ensuring the attendance of all internal and external players on this issue, which paves the way for reaching a reconciliation. What supports these assumptions are the recent developments witnessed in regards to the Libyan internal affairs and the military and political operations. Nonetheless, the legitimate questioning remains about the fate of the terrorist militias in Western and Southern Libya and its implications on any future settlement, or understanding the position of the external parties supporting those militias, especially with them attending the conference in Palermo. In return, this paper seeks a progressive analysis of the changes that came before the conference and show a futuristic outlook on the Libyan case.

Firstly: the Palermo Conference and the Settlement Indicators

The head of Libyan Presidential Council Fayez Al Sarraj has concluded a quick visit to Roma in order to finalize a lasting arrangement before the Palermo conference which was scheduled on the 12^th and 13^th of November, 2018. This was several days before a similar visit to Italy by the Field Marshal Haftar. Roma was vigilant about the attendance of all four Libyan parties whom participated in the conference in Paris in May 2018. The Italian reports indicate that the Palermo conference was scheduled over two days, the first day involved negotiations between all four Libyan Parties (AL Sarraj, Haftar, Khaled Al Mushri, and Aqela Saleh) and that is supposed to be done before the second day, where it involves highly profiled participants from various regional and international powers. The conference involves representatives from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, UAE, Qatar, France, Germany, Spain, Morocco, Tunisia, Britain, Canada, Chad, Algeria, Jordan and Malta, in addition to participation of the United Nations, The European Union, the League of Arab States and the African Union.

The Palermo Conference witnessed a high-level participation from Qatar, which was confirmed by the Italian Minister of Interior Mateo Salvini following his visit to Doha. This matter has raised many questions over the Italian agenda and their influence after the conference. There are some internal indicators towards reaching significant conclusions in Palermo conference.

At this time, Field Marsha Haftar has sacked several officers who oppose the settlement like Major General Nais Boukhamada, Major General Abdel Razak Nadori, in addition to Major Mahmoud Al-Warfali. This group is also accused of being involved in human rights violations, where Haftar then had to replace them with a group of young leaders close to him.

On the other hand, Al-Sarraj has invested in the military struggles which erupted in West of Libya between the Militias, and he was able to restructure them under the new leadership as part of a strategy for new security arrangements. He then appointed Fathi Bashaga as the Minister of Interior, who has previously participated in forming the alliance of “Dawn of Libya”, and it is believed that he has enough experience in forming or dismantling the Militias.

Furthermore, it is noteworthy that what supports the possibility of reaching a settlement with the Libyan case is the return of several ambassadors from countries like the USA and Germany, and allowing several embassies to work normally inside the Libyan territories. On the forefront of these embassies is the Turkish Embassy in Tripoli which is utilized by the government and therefore backed up by some of the armed Militias. In addition, you find the South Korean and the British Embassy involved in demanding a share of the gains that emerge from a political settlement.

Secondly: the Return of ISIS to Libya

Despite the success achieved by the Al-Bonyan Al Marsoos forces in expelling ISIS from Sirte in the middle of Libya, remnants of the system succeeded in fleeing to southern Libya and to its desert routes. They became prominent again, and their activity is not confined to the south, but has also reached the center and west Libya, where it is estimated that a number ISIS members in Libya has reached 3000-4000, according to sources. In addition there is a group of Chadian and Sudanese rebels who recently began to increase their activity in southern Libya, west of the Hurooj mountains, as they are spreading in Al-Kafra region alongside of Um Al-Araneb and Marzook Basin in the south on the Chadian and Libyan border.

In recent days, there has been unprecedented activity for ISIS who started gaining back their power. ISIS initiated several attacks in different regions; the last one was on the town of Jafra south east of Tripoli. This came as a retaliation to capturing of Jumaa Al-Qarqaai in the south in the city of Alfeqha. Additionally, the clashes returned in the capital, Tripoli, between the militias, and this was associated to the incident of the assassination of one of the commanders of the Tripoli Revolutionary Brigade.

Thirdly: Libya in Lieu of the New Cold War

Washington’s role remains pivotal in achieving the expected settlement in the Libyan case, and it must support the political process without differentiating between France and Italy or even some regional parties. In July 2018, when Haftar announced his intention to sell some oil reserves outside the legitimacy of oil institutions, Washington responded that this was a violation of the decision of the United Nations.

This then prompted Hafter to reverse his decision, which supports the hypothesis that Washington still holds the upper hand in the Libyan case even though it tends to ignore the Libyan crisis in favor of other regional and international crises. Additionally, it does increase the probability of maintaining a successful political record of accomplishment and achieving results based on consensus, especially when Trump participates in the Palermo Conference.

Moreover, Russia has imposed itself as a strong effective player in coordinating and settling the Libyan case, which will result in pressuring the EU to collaborate in achieving stability in Libya, especially concerning the flow of immigrants into Europe. It is predicted that the growing role of Russia in Libya will feed into the divisions among the Europeans, especially the Italian government, which has welcomed the participation of Moscow in the Palermo conference.

It is also noteworthy that Moscow recently strengthened its military presence in East Libya, and this is according to a special report by the British intelligence. The report suggests Russia has two military bases on the coastal cities of Tabraq and Bengazi. This represents a direct threat to the European continent especially in terms of the immigration files.

Fourthly: The Stumbling Meeting between Haftar and Al-Sarraj in Egypt

After more than one year of Egypt’s efforts towards achieving unified Libyan Military establishment, these efforts have collided with external factors that dominate the internal situation in Libya. This was evident after Al-Sarraj has refused to attend the meeting prepared by Cairo in October 24, 2018, where the attendees like Haftar came together to sign on a final settlement for unifying the Military institution. In this case the success of this meeting could have led to the futility of the conference prepared by Rome.

However, when Al-Sarraj has objected towards the idea of the military submitting to the voted in authority, it meant that he would not succumb to the interim government proceeding the presidential elections. In return, the Egyptian efforts towards opening all the possibilities concerning the Roma conference were stumbling. This has the potential to push certain parties like France, USA and Russia to be involved in the conference in order to ensure that it remains to be an influencer in the future.

In return, the visit from the Turkish Minister of Defense Hulusi Akarto Tripoli to meet Al-Sarraj has stirred many questions about the timing and purpose of this special visit. Especially considering the conversations were all about unifying the military institution in Libya. Ankara was seeking to remove this file from Cairo and hand it over to the United Nations, given that the idea of a unified Libyan military presence represents a threat towards the militias that Ankara and Doha support in West Libya. Furthermore, there is a desire on the Turkish side to affirm their support for the Al-Sarraj government over the latest security arrangements.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the Parliament of the East (Tobruk) and the Supreme council of the reconciliation government have declared that they will form a unified government that consists of a president and two deputies, in order to put a road map for building unified Libyan institutions. It also constitutes opening the doors for formal candidacy for the new presidential council. It is evident that Aguila Saleh Issa is the luckiest in handling the presidency of the new presidential council. While Al-Sarraj is assumed to handle the presidency of new government.

This all paves the way towards reaching a political settlement in the construct of the Roma Conference. However, the external factors and parties remain to be the main movers of the militias, and resolving this matter would lead towards a successful reconciliation as well. It is also certain that putting an end to the divisions in Libya is ultimately a threat for the presence of the militias and in return a threat for their supporters. This raises the question about the possibility of an international intervention along the lines of the international forces participating in Syria, in order to end the presence of the terrorist groups in West and South Libya.

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