The Israeli Case: Major Structural Transformations Including the Possibility of Cancelling Elections

Policy Paper

Ameer Makhoul, Progress Center for Policies

Introduction

Former Prime Minister and Chief of Staff Ehud Barak warns of a high probability that the Knesset elections could be canceled if Netanyahu suspects he might not win them. Barak attributes this possibility to the fact that Netanyahu, through the judicial coup, subjugation of state institutions, and under special emergency regulations legislated by the Knesset during the war, now possesses the tools and mechanisms that enable him to enforce any decision he seeks in this regard.

Reading

Ehud Barak argues that Netanyahu seeks to transform most officials in state institutions from upholding the principle of separation of powers and loyalty to the state and law, into loyalty and obedience to him personally. Indeed, contrary to many expectations, Netanyahu and his government managed to dismiss former Defense Minister Gallant, Chief of Staff Halevi, other army commanders, and Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, replacing him with David Zini and imposing him on the agency. Netanyahu’s next mission remains the dismissal or resignation of the Attorney General, despite her right-wing stances, since he wants a legal advisor personally loyal to him.

The clearest example: when the acting Shin Bet head’s term ended on September 21, Netanyahu was set to appoint David Zini as the new Shin Bet chief. Zini had earlier been excluded from army leadership for being considered “messianic” and extremist. The Attorney General objected due to conflict of interest, but was forced to accept a compromise dictated by Supreme Court judges. This was despite Zini’s anti-democratic, religious Zionist positions and affiliation with the Noam party. The appointment is subject to the Senior Appointments Committee and pending High Court petitions.

In a detailed report (Haaretz, September 4), journalist Hilo Glazer warned of Zini’s ideology, fearing he could be influenced by religious Zionist authorities in his role. Given the enormous power the Shin Bet wields politically and security-wise, Glazer wonders how someone who views Palestinians as “enemies of God” would exercise such authority, and whether he would carry out illegal wiretaps or persecutions at Netanyahu’s request. Regarding elections, disqualifying parties or candidates could be justified by “secret Shin Bet assessments.”

With the war on Gaza and Israeli public opinion consumed by hostages, Netanyahu’s government has completed the judicial coup begun in early 2023. Transformations in state institutions are profound and accelerating. So far, the identity of Supreme Court and lower-court judges has been changed to align with the ruling coalition’s ideology. Under the pretext of emergency and counterterrorism, dozens of laws and amendments have been enacted, embedding emergency regulations into civilian law. These broaden definitions of “terror affiliation,” escalate penalties, and enable sweeping authoritarian control over political freedoms and human rights, including disqualifying parties or candidates.

Meanwhile, the Israeli police has undergone a comprehensive transformation, becoming what is called “Ben Gvir’s police,” with unprecedented powers given to officers based on personal judgment rather than legal standards.

Goal of the Judicial Coup:

The goal of the “judicial reform/coup” since February 2023 is to reshape state institutions to serve the ruling ideology of the far-right and religious Zionism. This legal framework enables absolute violations of international law, annexation in the West Bank, ethnic cleansing, Judaization, and indefinite entrenchment of the ruling coalition. It also provides the legal tools to ensure the coalition’s continued hold on power.

A major battle now revolves around the army’s identity. Analyst Yossi Klein (Haaretz, Sept 10) writes: “If soldiers face a choice between Netanyahu’s ideology and the Kahanist ideology, they will choose Ben Gvir’s because it is more deeply rooted.” He adds that soldiers who destroyed Gaza’s homes and killed with glee carry the spirit of genocide into Israeli society. They label Jewish critics of the war as traitors, and he wonders: “How will these soldiers act if elections are canceled and confrontations erupt?”

It is unlikely the Attorney General can withstand government pressure. Even if she remains formally in office, the government, according to the Justice Minister, can boycott her and nullify her role, as symbolized when Minister Levin ordered the locks on her office changed. This practice also targets the Chief Justice, whose role has been deliberately weakened and sidelined. Overall, the judiciary is being systematically subordinated to the political level, to be used as a tool when needed—especially for disqualifying parties and ensuring Netanyahu’s continued rule.

Barak clarifies that with a loyal Shin Bet chief, a new loyal Attorney General, a “special security situation,” and long-term legal changes, Netanyahu has all the tools to manipulate or even cancel elections. He could reschedule elections for his benefit or cancel them last-minute citing a manufactured security crisis, such as escalating tensions with Iran. Currently, all fronts are open, and Netanyahu seeks only shifting security solutions, never political ones.

Crucially, Barak stresses the situation of Arab parties. Netanyahu now effectively controls the Central Elections Committee, sidelining Supreme Court oversight. This control allows him to appoint religious Zionist and settler loyalists—or even Ben Gvir’s militias—as polling station heads in Arab communities, or to install cameras to monitor voters’ identities, a tactic attempted in 2022 to discourage Arab turnout. Barak also warns of orchestrated provocations in Arab towns, enabling the Elections Committee to invalidate ballot results, thereby canceling tens of thousands of Arab votes.

The most extreme political/legal tool is disqualifying Arab candidates or entire lists under “anti-terror” pretexts, after lowering evidentiary standards. Such moves would trigger massive Arab voter disengagement.

Election Preparations:

Meanwhile, election campaigns have already begun to dominate Israeli politics, though alignments remain fluid. Netanyahu’s Likud aims to prevent power transfer and preserve his government, even as a long-term “caretaker government” justified by “lack of resolution.” Weekly polls show opposition parties leading Netanyahu’s bloc, yet the opposition is shifting rightward, away from centrist-right forces. Netanyahu only needs a cohesive bloc of over 50 Knesset members to block any opposition coalition of 61 seats. Opposition reliance on Arab parties, as in the Bennett-Lapid government that included Ra’am, is now deemed illegitimate by most Israelis after the Gaza war.

Channel 14, Netanyahu’s main propaganda outlet, focuses heavily on Arab parties. Its coverage of Arab unity talks is framed as a threat: “the Arabs could cost us the government.” The aim is to incite right-wing voters to rally behind Netanyahu and justify disqualifying Arab parties as divinely sanctioned.

On September 9, Channel 14 published a poll to stoke fear, claiming that 66% of Bennett voters would support a government with Arab parties—compared to just 3% of Likud voters. The message: any alternative government depending on Arabs is illegitimate. If Arab parties succeed in uniting, they could secure 15–17 seats. In that case, either Netanyahu remains in power, or a new government must rely on an Arab party in its coalition—a scenario broadly rejected as illegitimate. To preempt this, Benny Gantz may consider joining Netanyahu’s coalition in exchange for excluding religious Zionists, reshaping state institutions through a “grand bargain” and a consensus election timeline.

Conclusion:

Beneath the noise of the Gaza war and regional conflicts, profound and lasting transformations are reshaping Israel’s security, legal, judicial, and political systems, ensuring ideological right-wing dominance in pursuit of its “divine mission” to prevent a Palestinian state, expand settlements, annex land, and block political solutions in favor of perpetual security arrangements.

Domestically, Netanyahu is reshaping internal policies to secure his hold on power, dismantling all legal and political constraints, and filling top state posts with loyalists.

Arab parties face maximum repression, surveillance, and disqualification, especially as elections approach. The appointment of the new Shin Bet chief is part of this pattern.

Postponement or even cancellation of the 2026 Knesset elections is possible, with legal, executive, and political infrastructure already in place.

Israel’s structural transformations are deep, seemingly permanent, and carry significant consequences both internally and for Palestinians and the broader region.