Ameer Makhoul, Progress Center for Policies
Policy assessment
Introduction:
On March 13, it was announced that the Likud party, led by Netanyahu, and the Official Right party, led by Sa’ar, would unite and run in the upcoming Knesset elections as a joint list. Observers suggest that Netanyahu aims to ensure that the expanded Likud becomes the largest bloc by a significant margin, securing its position as the first party to be consulted by the president when forming the next government within a year. If the current coalition parties win more than 53 out of 120 seats, Netanyahu will be able to form a bloc that prevents any alternative government. The right-wing and center-right opposition parties would then be unable to secure a majority of more than 60 seats without relying on an Arab party—an option that opposition leaders Lapid, Lieberman, and Bennett deem illegitimate.
For Gideon Sa’ar, uniting the two blocs is a prelude to merging into Likud. If Netanyahu succeeds in forming a future coalition, Sa’ar will hold a senior ministerial position. If Netanyahu fails, Sa’ar’s position will allow him to compete for Likud leadership, as he is ideologically aligned with Netanyahu and was originally part of the party.
Sa’ar’s other key strength is his ability to collaborate with former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, should the latter decide to run independently with a right-wing party in his bid for leadership. Polls indicate that Bennett’s participation could significantly impact the race.
Israeli media have recently highlighted efforts by “National Unity” leader Benny Gantz to legitimize the possibility of forming a unity government with Netanyahu.
At the same time, media reports suggest that initial talks have taken place between “National Unity” second-in-command Gadi Eisenkot and opposition leader Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) regarding a possible electoral alliance. Polls indicate that if Eisenkot replaces Gantz as leader, the party could recover from its decline. At the start of the Gaza war, the party had around 40 projected seats but has since fallen to approximately 16. Yesh Atid, under Lapid’s leadership, has also slipped to fourth or fifth place, behind Likud, National Unity, and Israel Beiteinu (Lieberman). If Bennett enters the race, Yesh Atid’s projected seats could drop to around 10.
The popularity of Avigdor Lieberman’s party, Yisrael Beiteinu, is rising, making it a strong contender for second or third place. Initially a party catering to Russian-speaking immigrants from the former Soviet Union, Yisrael Beiteinu is evolving into a center-right party attracting broader support, except among ultra-Orthodox Jews, as both Lieberman and Lapid represent a staunchly secular stance opposing Haredi influence.
Lack of a Political Alternative to Netanyahu:
A key feature of the current political landscape is the absence of a viable political alternative to Netanyahu’s government from within the Zionist opposition. Apart from the Democrats party, led by Yair Golan—a merger of the Labor and Meretz parties, also known as the “Zionist left”—which uniquely addresses the Palestinian issue and advocates for a political resolution, the opposition lacks a competing vision.
While opposition parties focus on issues like drafting ultra-Orthodox Jews into the army and governance reforms, these parties largely share a nationalist consensus rejecting any political solution with the Palestinians, favoring only military approaches.
The Arab Parties and Election Challenges
Meanwhile, Arab parties are actively working on strategies for the upcoming Knesset elections. Positions range between forming a unified electoral list to ensure surpassing the electoral threshold and securing the highest number of seats or running as two separate blocs while coordinating vote surplus agreements. The key challenge facing Arab parties is the risk of disqualification by the Central Elections Committee—a highly politicized body that may target multiple lists, individual parties, or specific candidates.
This challenge is compounded by the judicial coup, which limits the Supreme Court’s power to overturn Central Elections Committee decisions. Additionally, the war on Gaza has accelerated the passage of exclusionary laws aimed at preventing Palestinian citizens of Israel from participating in the political process. These efforts include systematic campaigns to delegitimize Arab political participation and prevent any potential coalition that relies on Arab parties.
Furthermore, as in previous elections, influence campaigns targeting Palestinian voters will likely be deployed, using AI-driven psychological operations to discourage voter turnout.
The Political Reality for Arab Parties
Arab parties recognize that the most likely alternative to Netanyahu’s government would be a center-right coalition, similar to the Bennett-Lapid government (2021-2022). However, such a government would not represent a true alternative to Netanyahu’s extremist right-wing rule; rather, it would be less extreme and violent while maintaining judicial independence as a reference rather than majority rule.
Conclusion
– The merger of the Official Right (Sa’ar) with Likud signals Likud’s preparation to choose an optimal election date, effectively marking the start of the electoral battle.
– The political landscape is expected to undergo shifts, potentially introducing new players and creating multiple blocs, which threatens Netanyahu’s dominance.
– As election maneuvering begins, Netanyahu is likely to further align state policies to secure his re-election, possibly escalating tensions in the West Bank and prolonging the Gaza war if feasible.
– The opposition’s strategy, particularly if Bennett enters the race, aims to fracture the right-wing bloc and disrupt the current binary division favoring Likud and the far right.
– Efforts to exclude Palestinian citizens of Israel from elections reflect deeper Israeli political trends seeking to delegitimize their political influence and ultimately eliminate their role in shaping the country’s future.
