Policy paper summary – Progress Center for Policies
Introduction:
Unlike his previous stubbornness, Benny Gantz, leader of the official opposition camp, announced his acceptance of holding primary elections for the party leadership. He did not specify a date but confirmed it would be in the coming months and would include opening party membership.
According to polls, the two main opposition parties — the official opposition (Gantz) and Yesh Atid (Lapid) — are sharply declining in popularity. Both have become minor parties with limited influence on Israel’s political future.
As of now, it seems unlikely that by Wednesday, June 11, there will be a parliamentary majority to topple the government and dissolve the Knesset, but election atmosphere is increasingly dominating the Israeli political scene.
Analysis:
Electoral Atmosphere and Political Alignments:
With talk of Knesset elections, new political alignments are being explored that may drastically reshape the political map. Polls indicate the ruling coalition’s bloc shrinking to about 49 seats out of 120, against 61 for the current opposition bloc and about 10 for the Arab parties.
Netanyahu’s Position and Political Maneuvering:
There is a widespread belief that the opposition’s lead signals the end of Netanyahu’s rule, but that is not necessarily the case. Netanyahu, aiming to continue as prime minister, seeks to secure a supportive bloc of 50 or more members. Since October 7, 2023, a firm consensus exists rejecting the legitimacy of any government relying on one or more Arab parties—even as external supporters (“blocking bloc”). According to this consensus, a far-right bloc with 50 members would prevent the current opposition from forming a new coalition to displace Netanyahu.
Netanyahu believes opportunities remain: the Religious Zionism party (Smotrich) might still pass the electoral threshold, or new party alignments might emerge, even if it costs Smotrich his leadership. Netanyahu also plans to create a functional right-wing party alongside Likud to attract right-wing figures with security and ideological credentials, aiming to stop defections to Naftali Bennett’s party, which currently is Netanyahu’s strongest rival and equals Likud in Knesset seats.
Fragility within the Ultra-Orthodox Bloc:
Netanyahu and Aryeh Deri (Shas party leader) have managed to create rifts within the ultra-Orthodox bloc—between religious leadership and parliamentary factions, and between Shas and United Torah Judaism (Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox). This latter faction opposes drafting ultra-Orthodox into the army and rejects sanctions against draft evaders. It also conflicts with Religious Zionism on issues like eternal war and the “redemption of captives” ideology. United Torah Judaism is moving away from its traditional alliance with Likud.
Election Timing and Political Atmosphere:
If the no-confidence motion fails, election atmosphere will dominate politics. Netanyahu will try to set the election date to maximize Likud’s advantage or might delay elections beyond 2026 citing the war. Right-wing rhetoric considers elections during wartime illegitimate, with Smotrich calling it “abandoning victory” in Gaza and other fronts.
Rising Popularity of the Democratic Party:
The Democratic Party, led by General Yair Golan, has seen a notable rise, currently polling at around 14 seats. The party is a fusion of Labor and Meretz elements, offering an alternative political-security vision that challenges Netanyahu without aligning under slogans like opposing the judicial coup or defending Zionist liberalism.
This rise underscores the decline of the main opposition parties led by Lapid and Gantz. Lapid’s party is becoming marginal, with analysts suggesting his political career may be ending, partly because their support for Netanyahu’s war policies lacked substance. Golan’s rise suggests that only a genuine alternative political project can bring change.
Crisis in Gantz’s Party and Bennett’s Rise:
Gantz’s acceptance of primary elections is a forced move due to potential defections to Bennett’s party and the possible candidacy of former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, who has broader popularity. Eisenkot proposes uniting the opposition, mainly the political center, even if it means partnering with Lapid, and is accepted by groups that reject Lapid.
The biggest variable remains Bennett’s political entry. Accepted by the U.S. as a return to “managing and reducing conflict” instead of open war, Bennett’s presence splits right-wing voters enough to exclude Netanyahu and allies from power, potentially creating a stable majority of about 65 seats versus 45 for the ruling coalition.
Arab Parties and the Unified List:
Arab parties maintain about 10 seats based on 2022 elections and past divisions that lost around 200,000 votes. Current efforts focus on rebuilding a unified Arab list with new parties and initiatives. There are disputes about whether the list should have a joint political platform or be a technical alliance where each party acts independently.
A broad joint list could gain 15–17 seats, becoming influential in policy and alliances. Their common goals include removing Netanyahu, ending war on Gaza, rebuilding, fighting crime, ending occupation, and establishing a Palestinian state. However, this growing power faces threats of disqualification and banning of lists and institutions.
Conclusion:
Whether Netanyahu’s government falls soon or survives a no-confidence vote, election atmosphere dominates Israeli politics.
Chances for political change exist but are far from certain.
Overthrowing Netanyahu depends on fundamental changes in opposition leadership, programs, and approaches.
Opposition’s experience shows that removing Netanyahu requires offering a real alternative—especially regarding ending war in Gaza, halting West Bank annexation, and combating racism and ethnic cleansing policies against Palestinians inside Israel.
No profound Israeli political change is likely soon; the most probable alternatives are centrist-right Zionist coalitions, and expectations beyond this verge on political illusion.
