Situation Assessment: Progress Center for Policies
Introduction:
The Arab Coalition’s air force bombing of Mukalla Port is considered an escalation that raises the level of tension in southern Yemen and reveals the worsening of a regional dispute between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates over the recent crisis, following the Southern Transitional Council’s forces taking control of areas in Hadramout and Al-Mahrah.
Facts on the Ground:
On December 30, 2025, the Joint Forces Command of the Saudi-led Arab Coalition to Support Legitimacy in Yemen announced the execution of a “limited” airstrike targeting external military support at Mukalla Port.
The Coalition’s official spokesperson, Brigadier General Turki Al-Maliki, stated that two vessels arriving from Fujairah Port in the UAE were detected entering Mukalla Port without obtaining official permits from the Coalition’s Joint Forces Command.
He added that the crews of the two vessels disabled their tracking systems and unloaded large quantities of weapons and combat vehicles to support Southern Transitional Council forces in Yemen’s eastern governorates (Hadramout and Al-Mahrah), “with the aim of fueling the conflict, in clear violation of the imposed de-escalation, efforts to reach a peaceful solution, and in breach of UN Security Council Resolution 2216.”
On December 30, 2025, the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed regret, in a statement, over actions taken by the brotherly UAE in pressuring the “Transitional Council” to push its forces to carry out military operations along the Kingdom’s southern borders in the governorates of Hadramout and Al-Mahrah, which it described as “a threat to the Kingdom’s national security and to the security and stability of the Republic of Yemen and the region.”
The statement added that the steps taken by the brotherly UAE are extremely dangerous, inconsistent with the foundations upon which the Coalition to Support Legitimacy in Yemen was established, and do not serve efforts to achieve Yemen’s security and stability.
The Kingdom warned, according to the statement, that any infringement or threat to its national security constitutes a red line, and that it will not hesitate to take all necessary steps and measures to confront and neutralize it.
The Kingdom stressed the importance of the brotherly UAE responding to the request of the Republic of Yemen for the withdrawal of its military forces from Yemeni territory within 24 hours, and the cessation of any military or financial support to any party inside Yemen.
The Kingdom expressed hope that the brotherly UAE would take the expected steps to preserve bilateral relations between the two brotherly countries, which the Kingdom is keen to strengthen, and to work jointly toward enhancing the prosperity, stability, and development of the region’s states.
On December 30, 2025, the Chairman of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council, Rashad Al-Alimi, issued a decision declaring a state of emergency across all Yemeni territory for 90 days, renewable.
He affirmed that the decision comes as confirmation of commitment to Yemen’s unity, sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity, and to the necessity of “confronting the ongoing coup against legitimacy since 2014 and the internal strife led by military mutiny elements that moved militarily against the eastern governorates with the aim of dividing the Republic of Yemen.” The decision included the imposition of an air, sea, and land ban on all ports and crossings for 72 hours.
Al-Alimi directed the “Homeland Shield” forces to take control of all military camps in the governorates of Hadramout and Al-Mahrah.
On December 30, 2025, the Vice President of the Southern Transitional Council, Hani bin Breik, said that what occurred constitutes an official Saudi attack on Hadramout and its civilian port.
He added that the bombing of a southern civilian port constitutes a “blatant violation of international humanitarian law,” noting that civilian facilities enjoy legal protection and that the port represents a vital economic lifeline for traders and citizens in Hadramout.
Bin Breik accused the Arab Coalition of engaging in what he described as “media and political deception” by publishing images and video clips to justify the military operation, describing this as an “ethical سقوط” (moral collapse).
He expressed concern that these developments could lead to Saudi Arabia losing its allies, calling for “rescuing the file from the hands of those playing with it,” whom he said wish no good for Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the south, or the north.
On December 29, 2025, the Israeli newspaper Maariv reported that Israel is considering recognizing “the UAE-backed entity in southern Yemen to enhance strategic cooperation against the Houthis along the Red Sea coast.”
On December 28, 2025, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and his Saudi counterpart, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, discussed bilateral relations and regional and international developments—particularly developments in southern Yemen—during a phone call, stressing the need to preserve Yemen’s unity, territorial integrity, and the implementation of the roadmap.
On December 29, 2025, in an unusual move, Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs officially announced a phone call between Araghchi and a Houthi militia official, Abdulwahid Abu Ras, acting foreign minister of the Houthi government in Sana’a.
This marked the first time the Iranian Foreign Ministry publicly disclosed details of direct communication of this kind with a Houthi militia official, after years in which such contacts were conducted away from official announcements.
According to the Iranian Foreign Ministry statement, the call focused primarily on discussing developments in southern Yemen.
On December 27, 2025, Saudi Minister of Defense Prince Khalid bin Salman (son of the King and brother of the Crown Prince) stated that the Southern Issue will remain present in any comprehensive political solution and will not be forgotten or marginalized, and that it must be resolved through consensus.
He added that the time has come for the Southern Transitional Council to prioritize reason, wisdom, the public interest, and unity of ranks by responding to Saudi-Emirati mediation efforts to end the escalation, withdraw their forces from military camps in the two governorates, and hand them over peacefully to Homeland Shield forces and local authorities.
As of the time of writing this assessment, the UAE had not issued any official statement regarding the developments.
Conclusion and Analysis:
The bombing of Mukalla Port represents the highest level of escalation in which Saudi Arabia has used military force against the Southern Transitional Council.
The event follows the deterioration of the military situation and the failure of Saudi-Emirati diplomatic efforts to reach a settlement ending the crisis caused by the Transitional Council’s takeover of areas and sites in Hadramout and Al-Mahrah.
The event comes days after high-level Saudi signals issued by the son of the Saudi King and brother of the Crown Prince, Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman, indicating that the matter has reached the royal level of concern in Riyadh.
The event and the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement represent a public Saudi friction with the UAE’s position on the recent crisis, after both countries sought to conceal their differences regarding southern Yemen.
Statements by the Chairman of the Yemeni Presidential Council and the Vice President of the Southern Transitional Council reflect Saudi-Emirati communication through the parties to the conflict in Yemen.
Saudi and Emirati media continue to avoid direct media campaigns and maintain the term “brotherly” in an effort to control the official discourse of both countries.
Unofficial Israeli signals of intervention in the southern Yemeni debate were observed, including hints at recognizing a southern entity that would complement Israel’s recognition of Somaliland.
Iranian diplomatic movement toward Riyadh and the Houthis in Sana’a regarding the southern Yemen crisis was observed, revealing Tehran’s search for a role and position.
If Riyadh and Abu Dhabi fail to find a joint formula to halt the deterioration of the crisis, intervention by President Trump’s administration—given its excellent relations with both capitals—cannot be ruled out.
