The Hypothesis of Palestine’s Return to the Center of the Regional Order
Policy Paper by Mohamed Masharqa – Progress Center for Policies – London
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Introduction
Over the past two decades, a central assumption has dominated political debates in the Middle East: that the escalation of confrontation between Israel and Iran would gradually marginalize the Palestinian issue and reorganize regional priorities around a broader geopolitical struggle between two regional axes. Successive Israeli governments—particularly during the era of Benjamin Netanyahu—have reinforced this perception by redefining the primary threat in the Middle East as one linked to the Iranian project and its regional influence.
Within this framework, Iran was portrayed as the greatest existential danger facing Israel and the regional order, while the Palestinian question was framed as a secondary issue that could be postponed until this threat was addressed.
However, a deeper reading of the transformations currently unfolding in the region—proposed here as a hypothesis for reflection and debate—suggests the possibility of the opposite outcome. Rather than leading to the marginalization of the Palestinian issue, the regional neutralization of Iran may in fact bring the Palestinian question back to the center of both the regional and international systems.
A significant portion of the security narrative used by Israel to justify the continuation of the occupation and the rejection of a Palestinian state relied on the presence of a persistent regional threat represented by Iran and its networks of influence across the region. If this phase of geopolitical confrontation were to end, a substantial part of this security discourse could lose its political justification.
This paper proceeds from the hypothesis that the regional neutralization of Iran may reshape the political environment of the Middle East in ways that restore the Palestinian issue to the center of the regional order, and that the end of the era of major regional conflicts could open the door to revisiting a political settlement of the Palestinian–Israeli conflict as a necessary condition for regional stability.
In this context, the paper also proposes a calm reassessment of prevailing assumptions in Palestinian and Arab political thought. Over the past decades, three main intellectual approaches have shaped interpretations of the conflict with Israel: the perspective of Arab nationalist currents, that of various Islamic movements, and that of leftist currents. Despite their profound ideological and political differences, these approaches often converge on a shared assumption—that the conflict with the Zionist project is an existential zero-sum struggle that can only be resolved through armed force or the complete defeat of one side.
Yet the transformations currently unfolding in the international system and the shifting balance of regional power suggest a different possibility worthy of discussion: that the course of the conflict may change not only through military resolution, but also through structural transformations in the international and regional environment that could render the continuation of occupation more politically and strategically costly than its resolution.
From this perspective, the paper does not seek to deny the deeply conflictual nature of the Palestinian–Israeli dispute, but rather to test an alternative hypothesis: that changes in the regional order following the confrontation with Iran could open a new window for placing the Palestinian question once again at the center of Middle Eastern stability.
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First: Redefining the Conflict in the Middle East
Since the 1990s, successive Israeli governments have sought to redefine the core conflict in the Middle East by shifting international attention away from the Palestinian issue toward broader security concerns—most notably Iran’s nuclear program and Tehran’s regional influence.
Researchers at institutions such as the Brookings Institution and Chatham House have noted that this shift was not merely a rearrangement of security priorities, but part of a broader effort to reshape the political environment of the region so that confrontation with Iran would become the primary strategic issue.
In this context, Iran was portrayed as the central threat to regional stability, while the Palestinian–Israeli conflict was framed as a secondary issue that could be postponed until the Iranian threat was resolved.
Yet this strategy may contain a profound strategic paradox. The closer the region moves toward a post-Iran confrontation phase, the more difficult it becomes for Israel to justify its policies toward the Palestinians through the language of regional security.
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Second: The Dilemma of the Israeli Right-Wing Project
In recent years, hardline nationalist and religious currents within Israel have risen to prominence, openly advocating the redrawing of the demographic map of historic Palestine by encouraging Palestinian emigration or gradual displacement.
However, this project faces firm practical limits. Despite repeated wars and immense economic and political pressures, nearly seven million Palestinians continue to live in historic Palestine—across the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, East Jerusalem, and within the Green Line.
This demographic reality places Israel before a profound strategic dilemma. On the one hand, it seeks to preserve the Jewish character of the state. On the other hand, it controls a geographic space inhabited by a large Palestinian population.
Many scholars have pointed out that this demographic dilemma has become one of the most significant structural constraints facing the Israeli political project.
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Third: Shifts in International Public Opinion
Alongside the demographic dilemma, Israel is also facing significant shifts in the international environment surrounding the Palestinian–Israeli conflict.
Following the most recent war in Gaza—widely described as involving acts of ethnic destruction and accompanied by extensive accusations of war crimes and mass killings—a gradual shift has begun to appear in global public opinion.
Researchers at the Brookings Institution have noted that discourse in universities, media outlets, and civil society organizations has become increasingly sympathetic to Palestinian demands for political and human rights.
The large demonstrations witnessed in numerous Western capitals protesting the war in Gaza also point to deeper changes in the international political mood. Increasingly, discussion of the Palestinian–Israeli conflict is linked to questions of international law, human rights, justice, development, and regional stability.
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Fourth: Early Warning Signs of Israeli Isolation
In light of these transformations, a number of indicators have begun to emerge suggesting that Israel may gradually be entering a phase of political isolation within the international system.
Among the most notable indicators are:
• Growing international legal criticism of Israeli policies in the Palestinian territories before the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court.
• A gradual shift in political discourse within certain Western countries regarding unconditional support for Israel.
• The expansion of international boycott movements associated with the occupation.
A report by the International Crisis Group has suggested that these indicators reflect a gradual transformation in the international political environment surrounding the conflict.
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Fifth: Comparison with the South African Experience
In recent years, comparisons between the Israeli case and South Africa at the end of apartheid have increasingly appeared in academic and political discussions.
In South Africa’s case, the collapse of the apartheid system did not result from a military victory by the opposition, but from a gradual change in the international environment that made the continuation of the regime politically and economically unsustainable.
In the Palestinian context, it is possible that a similar transformation could occur if shifts in the international and regional environment render the continuation of occupation increasingly costly for Israel within the international system.
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Sixth: Strategic Scenarios for the Future of the Palestinian Issue
In light of potential transformations in the regional environment—particularly if geopolitical tensions associated with Iran decline—three main strategic trajectories for the Palestinian issue may be envisioned in the coming years. These scenarios do not represent deterministic predictions but rather possible directions shaped by the interaction of regional, international, and internal factors.
Scenario One: The Return of the Palestinian Issue to the Center of the Regional Order
If the regional neutralization of Iran reduces geopolitical polarization in the Middle East, the international community may once again view the Palestinian–Israeli conflict as the most persistent political dispute affecting regional stability.
In such a context, political and diplomatic pressure could increase to relaunch a serious political settlement process, particularly if these changes coincide with shifts in global public opinion and a growing political and moral cost associated with the continuation of occupation.
This scenario could restore the Palestinian issue to the center of international debate after years of marginalization by other regional concerns such as the Iranian nuclear program and geopolitical power struggles.
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Scenario Two: Continuation of the Conflict-Management Model
In this scenario, Israel may succeed in maintaining the status quo through a combination of military superiority, international alliances, and regional balances without entering a genuine political settlement process.
Settlement expansion and the administrative-security management of Palestinian territories may continue, allowing the conflict to remain at a low-intensity level without being fundamentally resolved.
This scenario assumes that the international environment will remain hesitant to impose a comprehensive political settlement and that internal Palestinian divisions may weaken the ability to formulate a unified political project capable of changing the existing balance.
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Scenario Three: Transformation of the Nature of the Conflict
If political stagnation continues for an extended period and the two-state solution becomes practically unattainable due to settlement expansion and geopolitical complexities in the West Bank, the nature of the conflict may gradually shift.
In this scenario, the Palestinian issue may transition from a traditional national conflict over land and sovereignty to a broader struggle centered on civil rights, political equality, and justice within a single geographic space.
This trajectory has already begun to appear in academic literature, particularly in discussions drawing comparisons with South Africa’s experience at the end of apartheid.
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Between these three scenarios, the actual trajectory of the Palestinian issue will depend heavily on the nature of regional transformations that follow the phase of confrontation with Iran. As major geopolitical conflicts in the region diminish, cross-border security concerns that dominated Middle Eastern agendas over the past two decades may recede, allowing the Palestinian–Israeli conflict to gradually return to its place as one of the most influential political disputes affecting regional stability.
From this perspective, the regional neutralization of Iran may not necessarily marginalize the Palestinian issue, as some analyses suggest, but may instead create conditions for a reordering of Middle Eastern priorities in which resolving this conflict becomes increasingly essential for any emerging regional order seeking stability and development.
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Seventh: The Palestinian Issue and the Emerging Regional Order
If the Middle East enters a post-geopolitical-conflict phase and regional states gradually shift their priorities toward economic development, political stability, and regional integration, the nature of the region’s primary tensions may change significantly.
In such a context, geopolitical conflicts—particularly confrontation with Iran—may recede, allowing the Palestinian–Israeli conflict to reemerge as one of the last structural disputes in the regional order.
Many projects aimed at rebuilding the regional order in the Middle East—whether in energy cooperation, trade corridors, or economic integration—assume a more stable regional environment. However, the continued Palestinian–Israeli conflict, with its recurring cycles of violence and instability, may remain a major obstacle to such projects.
Within this framework, the Palestinian issue may gradually evolve from a bilateral dispute between two parties into a question directly tied to the broader architecture of regional stability.
As states in the region move toward building new systems of economic and security cooperation, addressing the Palestinian–Israeli conflict may increasingly become necessary as one of the final sources of chronic instability in the Middle East.
Thus, achieving a just political settlement to the Palestinian issue may become not only a moral or legal demand, but also a practical prerequisite for establishing a more stable regional order capable of enabling economic development and regional integration.
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Eighth: Why Do Some Western Think Tanks Fear the End of the Conflict with Iran?
Although many Western think tanks believe that reducing tensions with Iran could contribute to Middle Eastern stability, some analysts have pointed to an important strategic paradox.
The end of confrontation with Iran may bring the Palestinian issue back to the center of international debate in ways that could place greater political pressure on Western governments to address the conflict.
Researchers at institutions such as Chatham House and the Carnegie Endowment have noted that ongoing regional tensions with Iran sometimes allow the Palestinian issue to be postponed, whereas the end of this phase of conflict could redirect international attention toward what many consider the core problem of the Middle East: the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories.
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Conclusion: Key Findings and Assessments
The preceding analysis suggests that the regional neutralization of Iran may not necessarily marginalize the Palestinian issue. On the contrary, it may lead to the opposite outcome—returning the Palestinian question to the center of both the regional and international systems.
The continued presence of millions of Palestinians on their land, combined with growing shifts in international public opinion, makes it difficult for any political project based on population transfer or demographic exclusion to succeed in practice.
In a regional environment that may gradually move toward stability and economic development, Israel may face a new political equation: either reach a historic settlement with the Palestinians or confront growing international pressure that could push the conflict toward more complex trajectories.
Ultimately, the future of the Middle East may be determined not only by the outcome of confrontation with Iran, but also by the ability of a new regional order to address the Palestinian–Israeli conflict as one of the most enduring sources of tension in the region.
