By Willfred Muliro
Introduction:
Kenya’s forthcoming general election, slated for the 9th of August 2022, is likely to be one of the country’s most closely contested presidential vote in recent history. This is because the 9 August presidential vote pits populist sitting Deputy president against veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga who is backed by the incumbent, president Uhuru Kenyatta. At the age of 77, Raila Odinga who holds a legacy of democratic struggle and reforms, is staking his fourth and possibly final run, which he has dubbed “Risasi Moja” loosely translated “One last bullet”. Indeed, this will be a closely-contested and high voltage poll going by the revolutionary class-based campaign of Deputy president William Ruto against an unabashed state machinery loyal to president Kenyatta and his favoured candidate, Odinga. Whereas Ruto is running on a platform of populism and the pro-bottom poor masses, Odinga is thriving on his track-record of political reforms and anti-corruption agenda. The presidential has been christened by the Kenyan media as a ‘two- horse race’ even though there are other two presidential candidates namely, George Wajackoyah of Roots Party and Wahiga Mwaure of Agano Party. In total there are four presidential candidates in Kenya for the 9 August election.
Date and Mode of Elections
The Constitution of Kenya (2010) requires that a presidential election takes place on the same day as the general election of members of parliament, governors and members of county assembly; this being the second Tuesday in August in every fifth year, which means that the next general election is scheduled for 9 August 2022. Therefore, on this date Kenyans go to the polls to elect their leaders for the next five years. These shall be the third elections under the Constitution of Kenya, 2010. According to the Kenyan Constitution, voters will elect a president, 47 Governors, 47 Members of Senate, 290 Members of the National Assembly, 47 Women Members of the National Assembly and 1,450 Members of the County Assemblies. Elections in Kenya take place within the framework of a multi-party democracy and a presidential system that is generally based on the first-past-the-post system. However, the President of Kenya is elected using a modified version of the two-round system: to win in the first round, a candidate must receive over 50% of the vote and at least 25% of the vote cast in each of more than half of the counties (a minimum of 24 of the 47 counties). If no candidate is elected, a fresh election shall be held within thirty days after the previous election and only the first (candidate with the greatest number of votes) and second candidate shall participate in the re-run elections. Kenya is an advancing democracy where various stakeholders play a role in the success of the entire electioneering process, these include political parties, Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), the Office of the Registrar of Political Parties (ORPP), security agents, the international community, the media, the government, the citizens of Kenya, to mention but a few.
Presidential candidates have been chosen through direct endorsement by delegates of various political parties. The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party as expected endorsed Raila Amollo Odinga as the presidential flagbearer, who was also endorsed by other Azimio Coalition Party Member Parties. Odinga is now running on an Azimio La Umoja Coalition Party. The United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party endorsed Deputy president William Ruto as their presidential flagbearer and his candidature too was endorsed by other affiliate parties of the Kenya Kwanza Alliance. However, Ruto and his running mate are both contesting on a UDA ticket; a party that was formed by the deputy president and a splinter faction of the ruling Jubilee party. The party formations and shifting alliances and coalitions are discussed later in this article.
The high stakes in this year’s elections have also influenced the party primaries where most polls were a controlled affair majorly involving selection rather than election. The selection of candidates for various elective seats was ‘clothed’ in various terminologies such as consensus elections, negotiated democracy or simply direct ticket. The chief reason was that both Ruto and Odinga faced a major challenge of candidates defecting to rival parties or simply running as independents. This is a delicate balance in a close election because a popular independent can divide the vote, enabling a rival party to secure an unexpected victory. In response, coalition leaders spend the post-primaries nominations period beguiling those who feel cheated with offer to stay loyal, including the promise of future tenders; appointment to cabinet positions; appointment to various state commissions; nomination to legislative bodies; appointment to ambassadorial roles oversees; and, cash rewards.
Shifting Political Alliances and Divisions
This year’s poll contest in Kenya has seen a paradoxical shifting of political alliances and divisions. It has created new alliances between former traditional political rivals, namely president Uhuru’s ‘handshake’ with longtime political archrival Raila Odinga; and created enmity between former allies, that is, president Uhuru and his deputy William Ruto. The ruling party Jubilee has split into factions with some of Jubilee’s key politicians joining the deputy president in forming the United Democratic Alliance (UDA), while the reminder of Jubilee party has formed a coalition with Odinga’s ODM to birth the Azimio la Umoja Coalition Political Party on whose ticket Odinga is running for the presidency. The Azimio La Umoja Coalition is made up 23 political parties among them established parties such as Wiper Democratic Movement Kenya led by former Vice president Kalonzo Musyoka, National Alliance Rainbow Coalition- Kenya (NARC-K) led by former Minister Martha Karua (also Odinga’s running mate) and the waning independence party KANU led by former president Moi’s son Gideon Moi. The entry of Kalonzo Musyoka and Martha Karua on the side of Odinga has bolstered Odinga’s political chances of winning the election. Musyoka has a solid following of his Kamba community that boast of 1.69 million registered voters. Currently Martha Karua is considered the senior-most politician among Kenya’s most populous community of the Kikuyu; given that Uhuru Kenyatta will not be seeking re-election after completing his two terms as provided for by the constitution.
The Ruto-led side, known as Kenya Kwanza Alliance, is an alliance of political parties unlike Raila Odinga’s Azimio la Umoja, which is registered as a coalition party. The Kenya Kwanza Alliance has 12 political parties. The founding political parties in the Kenya Kwanza Allaince are Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA), Amani National Congress (ANC) led by former Vice president and long-serving Minister Musalia Mudavadi’s and Forum for Restoration of Democracy Kenya (Ford Kenya) of Moses Wetangula also a former Minister. Mudavadi and Wetangula are key leaders from the Luhyia community that dominates the western region of Kenya. In the previous election Mudavadi and Wetangula supported Odinga in his presidential bid against Uhuru Kenyatta and Ruto. In the past elections, Odinga garnered more votes in western Kenya than Uhuru- Ruto team. Therefore, the shift in alliance that has seen Mudavadi and Wetangula now support Ruto against Odinga and Uhuru is likely to complicate matters for Odinga’s support base in Western Kenya.
Overall, the growing business of Kenyan political parties forming coalitions and alliance has brought with it opportunities as well as challenges. Within the opportunity of bolstering numbers for the vote, there lies the challenge of intra-party rivalry among candidates for parliamentary and county assembly elective positions. Despite fielding one presidential candidate, the Azimio La Umoja coalition party members have presented own candidates for parliament, county assembly and gubernatorial positions. Similarly, although the Kenya Kwanza Alliance has managed to field a consensus candidate for most positions in competitive regions, there has been internal complaints that Ruto’s UDA was dominating other parties even in regions perceived to be strong holds of other alliance members. The ANC party leader Mudavadi is on record for calling upon his strongholds to vote for his party and not UDA candidates even though they were both in the Kenya Kwanza Alliance. As campaigns reach the homestretch, Odinga’s party is taking the hard decision to zone areas so that candidates from the dominant party locally are supported while others are asked to step down. Odinga has stated that his team will use scientific methods such as opinion polls to determine the most popular candidates for whom the rest would step down. For example, Wiper party candidates would be supported in Ukambani region while candidates from other parties will be prevailed upon to stepdown for ODM candidates in Western and Nyanza. But the crux of the matter appears to be in cosmopolitan areas such as Nairobi where each member party of Azimio is set to have their own candidates. Just like Odinga, Ruto has also been keen to have a majority of elected members in parliament and devolved government from his UDA party.
The Dynamics: Strategies, Chances and Losses
In the history of Kenya’s political campaigns, economic agenda has taken the central position. The UDA candidate Dr Ruto is the front architect of the economic agendas in politics. He has been marketing his bottom-up economic model, which puts focus on the economically poor members of society dubbed “hustlers”. This strategy has endeared Ruto to the youths and members of the small scale traders and other business people.
On his side, Mr Odinga has crafted the economic agenda to be about war on corruption, what he referred to as “sealing the loopholes of pilferage” so as to jumpstart the country’s economy. In this agenda the Azimio team seeks to paint Ruto and his running mate Gachagua as corrupt people who cannot be trusted. On this, Kenya’s president Uhuru Kenyatta was more forthright insisting that he would not “leave the government in the hands of a thief”. He explained that that was the reason why he was supporting Odinga and not his deputy Ruto.
This brings in the dimension of running-mates where many expected Odinga’s choice of Martha Karua as his deputy would attract more votes from women. Although pollsters have indicated that not much has changed among female voters despite the appointment of Ms Karua as a deputy presidential candidate for Odinga’s Azimio. Nonetheless, Odinga and Karua are a representation of the struggle for democratic governance in Kenta; having a solid record of agitation for good governance and political integrity. On his part Ruto appointed Mr Gachagua a career civil servant, who of late has faced court cases allegedly for amassing resources whose sources he could not explain. This has handed the Azimio team more arsenal to paint Ruto and his running mate as corrupt people. On the question of corruption, the Ruto team has come up with the idea of state capture where the top rich-man’s class has taken over the country’s economy for personal interest. This is assumed to be an affront to president Uhuru and his family which has continued to amass wealth since the era of Jomo Kenyatta’s regime. However, given the monetized nature of Kenyan politics, Gachagua brings in to Kenya Kwanza Alliance side not only immense resources but also advanced grassroots mobilization abilities especially among the populous Kikuyu community. To counter the Ms Karua “effect of women power”, the Ruto side has promised to have 50% of the cabinet being women.
Both sides have gone against political propriety by using state resources in their campaigns. Ruto uses the official residence of Kenya’s deputy president (dubbed Hustler’s Mansion) to conduct his political meetings and campaigns. However, with the president throwing his weight behind Odinga, brazen deployment of state resources has been unprecedented. The Cabinet Secretaries, top civil servants, down to the Chiefs have been openly engaged in campaigning for Azimio presidential candidate, Odinga. Notably, a day after the official end of campaign period, President Uhuru went on air to address members of his Kikuyu community in their vernacular imploring them to vote for his preferred candidate Odinga. As expected this has raised fury among the Kenya Kwanza Team with petitions being made to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) to call the president to order. Some have argued that president Uhuru’s intervention might be a drawback to Azimio chances since it may lead to a protest vote against the president and his candidate Odinga.
Perhaps the greatest threat to a peaceful election in Kenya is the perception that the government is bend on rigging the elections in favour of Odinga, what is popularly referred to in Kenya “deep state or system power”. In their final rallies, both candidates called for a peaceful election, in addition to a free, fair and credible election. In this rallies, the message was clear: Ruto talked of the people of Kenya versus a deep state that wants to subvert the people’s will; while Odinga referred to the liberation heroes versus the retrogressive corrupt forces.
Conclusion
On Tuesday, 9th August, 2022, the people of Kenya will be choosing their leaders after a hotly contested race. The virtue of this election was the focus on issues that affect ordinary Kenyans and not ethnic bigotry as has been before. This indeed, underscores the fact that the elections will be peaceful whatever the outcome. Pollsters have predicted that there would be a re-run, however, given the high octane campaigns by both candidates, there is going to be a surprise first round win if the government does not interfere with the results. Basically, the campaigns have been about making inroads into the rival’s strongholds and equally protecting one’s political fan-base. The electoral body, IEBC and the Judiciary remain the peace vanguard for this year’s elections in Kenya. So far, the IEBC has done well; remaining focused on the rule of laws despite drawbacks arising from the government’s interference and delays in releasing the much needed funds. Likewise, the reformed judiciary has demonstrated some high level of independence and integrity. The judiciary’s perceived integrity will attract petitions from those discontented with the results instead of choosing the expensive highway of violence.
