Jeremy Corbyn and Labour’s Brexit Crossroad
By Hamza Ali Shah
The culmination of Jeremy Corbyn’s time at the helm of the Labour Party has come. His world has come crashing down. The Conservatives will triumph yet again as Corbyn’s dreams of leading the Labour Party from 10 Downing Street are dissolving rapidly.
No, they most certainly are not.
However, that has not stopped the hysteria that has manifested, particularly in the media, since the turn of the year, following a recent poll concerning Corbyn, Labour and Brexit.
Indeed, according to a YouGov survey recently conducted, there is growing disapproval for Corbyn’s mode of operation when it comes to Brexit. 72 percent of Labour members want Corbyn to throw his weight behind another referendum, and 88 percent would align with Remain in that vote.
Likewise, the survey alleges that the number of Labour members who believe he is doing a good job has dropped from 80 to 60 percent.
Importantly, this illustrates just how divisive the matter of Brexit is. Much has been made about the divisions in the Conservative party, but the detachment in viewpoints is just as rife throughout Labour too.
It must be noted though; differing stances do not automatically mean that wider discontent is simmering. In fact, the survey stipulates that Corbyn still does benefit from overwhelming support in the party.
Accordingly, Corbyn has defied the odds and provided the Labour party with an identity again. Just two years prior to the 2017 general election, at 200-1 in the betting odds, he was a clear outsider in the leadership elections. What followed though was a landslide prodigious victory that saw him fend off centrist rivals Andy Burnham, Yvette Cooper and Liz Kendall, whilst concurrently dwarfing the 1994 mandate set by the Corbyn dissidents favourite Blair.
This came off the back of the unsatisfactory and humiliating defeat for former Labour leader Ed Miliband in the 2015 general election in which Labour lost their fourth consecutive election and won just 232 seats, down from 258 in 2010, which then, was the lowest since 1983.
Yet in the 2017 general election, spearheaded by Corbyn and his ‘youthquake’, Labour stripped Theresa May and her Conservatives of their governing majority by winning 262 seats.
Since then, the party’s credibility has heightened and membership has soared, as they approach a membership of up to 600,000. Likewise, throughout the latter periods of 2018, Labour were comfortably ahead of the Conservatives in the polls.
Therefore, talk in the media of a crisis for Corbyn is impulsive and exaggerated, as it is evident he has the general trust of his party. However, that still leaves the issue of Brexit unresolved.
In previous months, Corbyn’s leadership has been disputed because of his ambiguity regarding Brexit.
However, providing a set strategy is a huge risk in electoral terms. It is estimated that a third of Labour supporters championed Leave in the 2016 referendum. Thus, if Corbyn pressed for a policy that is at variance with Leavers, such as a peoples vote or Remain, this would leave a considerable number of Labour leave voters, predominantly in the North and Midlands estranged. This could give birth to sentiments hinting of a Labour Brexit betrayal, which could see Labour supporters turn to the Conservatives or even UKIP, the majority of whom robustly champion Brexit.
Additionally, an inconclusive approach to Brexit is exactly what allowed Corbyn and Labour to garner significant support from both Leavers and Remainers in the 2017 general election, so observers have pinpointed it as a prudently formulated political manoeuvre aimed at preserving support.
But with the commons meaningful vote on May’s deal imminent and the Brexit deadline looming, Corbyn will be under pressure to provide some transparency on his Brexit stance.
So what exactly is his strategy?
The same as it has been since the referendum. The same as it has been since the general election and the September Labour conference.
Get to No.10 first, and then renegotiate Brexit based on Labour’s terms, which will derive from the members. If that fails, then a peoples vote will be considered.
Indeed, when May presents her withdrawal agreement to parliament in January, the likelihood is it will be voted down. Once this happens, the possibility of no-deal Brexit increments and having already just scraped through a vote of no confidence, Theresa May will be vulnerable and under momentous pressure.
Resultantly, the embarrassment encircling May and her party, coupled with the divisions that have plagued them, Corbyn hopes, will provide the perfect opportunity for Labour to capitalise and rub salt in the wounds.
Significantly, a no-deal Brexit benefits neither Conservative Remainers nor the DUP, the Northern Irish party maintaining May’s government. Thus, should Labour present a confidence motion as intended, Conservative remainers and the DUP, who are crucial if Labour want to win such a motion, may conclude the only way to avoid a no-deal Brexit is to vote down their government, thus upping the chances of a general election.
Exceedingly, Corbyn himself has stressed Labour’s approach will remain ‘sequential’ and no move will be made until the vote in commons. Backing a peoples vote may briefly halt the Brexit chaos, but it keeps the Conservatives in power. That is Labour’s biggest concern.
Therefore, Corbyn will uphold his Brexit outlook, insisting Labour can deliver a better deal than the Conservatives can, consequently retaining pressure on them. Then when the meaningful vote receives the repudiation as anticipated, Labour will pounce.
The scenario seems clear in Corbyn’s head, and he will not sway under the pressure, it just remains to be seen whether he can pull off his master plan, considering there is currently sizeable support for the EU in his party.
