Position Assessment: Progress Center for Policies
After a month and a half of the war in Gaza, Israel finds itself in a predicament as a result of its own aggression. It is also evident that the war cabinet is moving towards a prisoner exchange deal, with internal divisions represented by Gantz and Eisenkot from the official camp and by Galant and army leaders. Netanyahu is yet undecided on his position. Washington maintains pressure on a humanitarian pause and the release of hostages through a partial exchange deal.
Two pressing factors may edge us closer to achieving a deal followed by truces: widespread public movements, centered around the families of Israeli hostages and prisoners in Gaza; and the accumulating Israeli cost on three integrated levels: human, military, and socio-economic. The army acknowledges the intensity of the battles despite the war not being on equal terms in any way. Estimates indicate that Israel may not be able to achieve its war aims with its own strength.
The voices of the families of Israeli hostages reveals a sense of despair and a lack of trust that the course of the war may lead to the return of their family members without a deal, reverting to the “all for all” strategy. They have become convinced that the army’s priorities and the military operation do not align with the priority of rescuing their relatives.
There are three governmental frameworks: the temporary war cabinet, the full cabinet (the Ministerial Committee on Security and Political Affairs), and the government as a whole. Power balances vary significantly within each framework.
Challenges:
• Israeli indifference to the humanitarian disaster in Gaza.
• The more losses the army incurs, the more it seeks additional force, escalating the social and economic burden.
• The erosion of trust in the Israeli public regarding the army’s narrative.
• Growing conflicts within the political and security forces.
• The possibility of deepening internal divisions in the coalition government.
Summary:
• A partial exchange deal for a temporary truce and humanitarian aid to Gaza is crucial in the course of the war, but is seen politically as a victory for Hamas and a failure to achieve the war aims.
• The government cannot evade a deal, despite the entrenching of Israeli divisions.
• Netanyahu’s political fate in Israel is uncertain, and his exit from the political scene does not necessarily mean the end of the war.
