Implications of Trump-Netanyahu Tensions: Will Europe Catch Its Breath?
By Ameer Makhoul, Progress Center for Policies
The recent remarks by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his new Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul signaled a notable departure from Germany’s traditional policy. They announced a shift away from equating criticism of Israel with antisemitism and emphasized the need for Israel to adhere to international law and allow humanitarian aid to reach Palestinians in Gaza.
These statements were preceded by reaffirmations of Germany’s commitment to Israel as a matter of national concern. However, they suggest a shift in mainstream German discourse. Reports indicate that since October 7, there has been a change in Germany’s stance, reflected in domestic policy as well, where voices critical of Israel—especially in universities or those denouncing genocide and ethnic cleansing or supporting Palestinian rights—are being suppressed.
One interpretation of this shift could be its timing with Trump’s Gulf tour. Europe has taken note of the rising tension between Trump’s camp and Netanyahu’s government, along with the evolving U.S. policy approach, which now seems more inclined to pressure the Israeli government and impose a new international and regional reality. This mirrors former EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell’s November 2023 statement that the two-state solution must be imposed by the international community, as it will not materialize otherwise. He argued that without a Palestinian state and a just resolution under international law, even Israel’s own security cannot be guaranteed.
In contrast, Germany’s recently declared shift can also be seen as a continuation of Europe’s long-standing support for the two-state solution, now gaining renewed momentum. This comes amid preparations for an upcoming international conference—initiated by Saudi Arabia and France—to support the establishment of a Palestinian state, scheduled to take place in New York this June.
There is growing concern in Israel over popular and organized shifts across Europe, including unions and student groups, especially as these movements influence governmental policies. These groups have been increasingly vocal in condemning the war on Gaza, and this public pressure challenges the long-held narrative promoted by Netanyahu since the 1990s—that Israel is the Jewish state, and thus any criticism of its policies is inherently antisemitic. Under this narrative, any support for Palestinian rights is framed as a form of antisemitism.
In this context, Israeli news outlet Ynet reported on May 12 that Italy’s student movement, particularly among the left, and labor unions have become influential, organizing weekly mass demonstrations in major cities against the war and in solidarity with Palestine, using slogans that challenge the boundaries of antisemitism.
The emerging signs of a break in Europe’s traditional alignment with Israel’s definition of antisemitism—toward instead a renewed commitment to international law and universal human rights—are troubling for Israel’s government. This shift focuses not on opposition to Israel itself, but specifically to its actions in Gaza, especially related to displacement, starvation, and mass killings.
According to various Israeli media analyses and political voices, the blame for this negative shift lies with Netanyahu’s government. Most European governments initially supported Israel’s war on Gaza after October 2023, but that support is now waning.
These recent European developments reflect broader regional changes and a decline in Israel’s strategic influence, both regionally and internationally, while the Arab position is gaining traction. As the global order shifts toward multipolarity and regional or interest-based alliances, Israel under Netanyahu finds itself excluded and increasingly isolated—facing legal and political consequences in a region intent on ending conflicts that threaten national and civil security.
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf, among other things, signals that his administration is not willing to subordinate its priorities to those of the Israeli government, despite its unwavering support for Israel. His strategy of bypassing the Israeli government on major issues—Palestinian, Iranian, Syrian, Saudi, and Yemeni—offers a unique geopolitical opening for Europe. This could prompt European states or the EU collectively to revisit their position and embrace the idea that resolving the region’s conflicts, especially the Israeli-Arab and core Palestinian issue, must be driven internationally—not locally. This aligns with Trump’s efforts to impose a ceasefire on Gaza, should they succeed.
It is well known that Israeli governments—particularly Netanyahu’s—have historically disregarded European criticism, while fearing American disapproval. As Netanyahu and his ministers grow increasingly anxious over the Trump administration’s diverging stance, the European position gains strength, bolstered by U.S. alignment, and may become more impactful.
In Summary:
The outcomes of President Trump’s Middle East tour may mark a turning point in the Gaza war, although nothing is guaranteed yet.
The visit may also catalyze a shift in international policy toward Palestine, reinforced by the Arab position.
The evolving European stance, especially Germany’s, underscores the significance of the upcoming Arab-European international conference in New York to advance the establishment of a Palestinian state—and the growing international belief that this solution must be imposed.