Situation Assessment – Progress Center for Policies
Overview:
Iran’s missile strike on a U.S. base in Qatar highlights the calculated decision by Tehran to use a friendly Gulf state as the stage for its retaliation against the United States—following the U.S. bombing of three Iranian nuclear facilities. This incident underscores Iran’s persistent status as a strategic threat to the Gulf states’ security, returning the region to a familiar position of tension and mistrust.
Key Developments:
On June 23, 2025, Iran announced it had launched an attack on U.S. forces stationed at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. The attack followed Qatar’s precautionary closure of its airspace—later revealed to have been coordinated with prior notifications from Iran to both Doha and Washington.
Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Majed Al Ansari, strongly condemned the attack by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), calling it a blatant violation of Qatar’s sovereignty, international law, and the UN Charter. Qatar reserved the right to respond in accordance with international law.
Observers noted that Qatar’s official statement attributed the attack specifically to the IRGC rather than the Iranian state—a formulation also adopted by the UAE.
On June 24, Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani received a call from U.S. President Donald Trump, who expressed solidarity with Qatar, condemned the Iranian strike, and urged restraint and diplomacy.
Saudi Arabia condemned the attack in the strongest terms, calling it an unjustifiable violation of international norms and Qatar’s sovereignty.
The UAE similarly denounced the IRGC’s targeting of the Al Udeid base, while emphasizing its support for Qatar.
Egypt, Kuwait, and Oman also issued firm condemnations, characterizing the strike as a dangerous escalation and a clear violation of Qatar’s territorial sovereignty.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian called the Emir of Qatar on June 24 to express regret over the attack, stating it was not intended to target Qatar or its people. However, Qatar reiterated its strong condemnation of the strike as a breach of sovereignty and good neighborly relations.
On June 25, UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed visited Doha, reaffirming the UAE’s solidarity with Qatar and support for its sovereignty and national security.
Analysts argue that regardless of the political “coordination” between Tehran and Washington to contain the 12-day conflict, Iran still carried out a direct strike on a GCC member state.
Experts point out that this action reaffirms Iran’s status as the primary strategic threat to the Gulf—a status that dates back to the founding of the GCC in 1981, following the Iranian revolution and the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq War.
Commentators stressed that Iran chose to strike a Gulf country that, like Oman, has maintained strong and positive ties with Tehran—often to the frustration of other Gulf states.
Qatar has also served as a key mediator between Iran and the U.S., and shares production of the joint North Field gas reservoir with Iran, adding further weight to the implications of the attack.
Analysts suggest that Iran refrained from targeting Iraq’s Ain al-Asad base, as it did in 2020, to avoid damaging ties with Baghdad. Similarly, it avoided striking Saudi territory to preserve the diplomatic gains of the 2023 China-brokered agreement with Riyadh.
Many observers believe Iran’s decision to strike Al Udeid may have been a strategic miscalculation that jeopardizes its long-term investment in maintaining tacit conflict-management frameworks with Gulf states.
The incident also raises questions about the credibility and reliability of traditional U.S.-Gulf defense partnerships, especially as intra-regional conflicts involving Iran now directly endanger Gulf security.
Despite a broad range of U.S. military assets across the region, Iran opted to strike within a friendly Gulf state, signaling a persistent, structural mindset in Tehran that undermines recent regional rapprochements.
Many regional voices are now calling for Gulf states to take a more active role in shaping the U.S.-Iran negotiating agenda, mirroring the European model of incorporating regional security concerns into agreements like the 2015 JCPOA.
Conclusion:
The Iranian strike on Al Udeid Air Base represents a direct attack on Qatar, a Gulf neighbor with historically strong relations with Tehran.
The incident prompted unified condemnation from Gulf states, expressing strong solidarity with Qatar and anxiety over Iran’s threat to regional stability.
The strike reaffirms Iran’s role as the principal long-term security threat to the Gulf—one that originally drove the formation of the GCC.
The attack undermines recent diplomatic progress, especially the 2023 Beijing Agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
The event may prompt Gulf states to re-evaluate their reliance on U.S.-led defense arrangements amid new questions over deterrence and strategic alignment.
There is growing momentum for Gulf states to demand a seat at the table in future U.S.-Iran negotiations, ensuring that regional concerns and security priorities are directly addressed.
