Flood Crisis in Sudan: An Indicator of Technical Mismanagement and Growing Regional Risks of the GERD
By: Zaelnoon Suliman, African Affairs Unit – Progress Center for Policies
Policy Assessment:
Introduction:
Sudan issued a warning about rising floods earlier this week, pointing to increased water levels along the two main tributaries of the Nile: the Blue Nile and the White Nile.
Key Facts:
The Sudanese Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources confirmed continued rising levels along the Nile banks this week. Several stations, states, and rivers have reached flood levels, including Wad al-Ais (Sennar), Khartoum, Madani, Shendi, Atbara, Berber, and Jebel Aulia. States affected include Blue Nile, Sennar, Gezira, Khartoum, River Nile, and White Nile. Floodwaters also reached some residential areas in the outskirts of White Nile and Khartoum states.
Experts note that since the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) was inaugurated on September 9, water releases exceeded 450 million m³/day, peaking at 750 million m³/day in the last five days before slightly dropping to 699 million m³/day—still more than double the natural seasonal flow (about 300 million m³/day).
Ethiopia claims the Sudan floods were caused by the White Nile, not the Blue Nile, arguing the GERD actually reduced the disaster’s impact by storing part of the flow. Addis Ababa denied full responsibility for the damage.
Ethiopia’s Minister of Water, Habtamu Itefa Geleta, declined to answer a journalist’s question about the turbines’ shutdown. He admitted to opening the dam gates but stated: “We did not discharge excess water.”
Analysis:
Ethiopia has begun releasing water from GERD as part of surplus management, turbine operations, and control mechanisms. Opening spillways is a natural option when the reservoir nears full capacity or when heavy rainfall increases inflows—both are currently the case.
Experts argue Ethiopia erred by filling the reservoir to full capacity before completing installation of all 13 turbines and before the end of the rainy season in October. The premature “official inauguration” forced Ethiopia to release water during ongoing heavy rains over the Ethiopian highlands (which supply ~60% of Nile waters). This, combined with the absence of coordination with Sudan, reflects technical mismanagement of dam operations.
GERD was expected to regulate Nile flows, reducing floods in rainy seasons and increasing releases in dry periods. However, this requires clear, transparent filling and operation rules agreed with downstream countries (Sudan and Egypt). To date, no binding trilateral agreement exists.
Conclusions & Outlook:
Sudan’s current flooding highlights the lack of technical coordination between Ethiopia and downstream states, raising concerns over GERD’s regional security implications.
The floods are not a total failure of GERD, but they reveal weak technical cooperation and the absence of a binding operational framework.
Unilateral operations make it difficult to predict river levels, causing damages to Sudan and increasing political tensions with Ethiopia.
Experts expect GERD releases to decline in the coming period as the reservoir stabilizes at its normal operating level (638 meters). After that, releases will match natural daily inflows.
If turbines enter service soon, annual inflows will be passed through them. If outages persist, however, Ethiopia will have no option but to continue spilling water through gates at daily inflow levels—meaning the crisis could continue.
